Spectrum of speculation

· 1 minute read

I have found it useful to group positions on artificial intelligence into five axes, each of which has a spectrum of perspectives. I find that understanding someone’s opinion about each axis helps reveal their hopes and fears about AI.

  1. AI bad — AI good
  2. AGI far — AGI close
  3. Slow takeoff — fast takeoff
  4. Decentralize — centralize
  5. Anthropocentric — biocentric — theocentric

Net benefit

  • AI is net bad for humanity
  • AI is net good for humanity


  • Close — AGI could happen in the next few years
  • Far — AGI will not happen in our lifetime, maybe never


  • Slow — reaching AGI will be a slow iterative process, if ever
  • Fast — AGI could begin self-improving and reach superintelligence in a matter of days, weeks, months


  • Centralized — AI should be tightly regulated, have strict controls
  • Decentralized — AI should be accessible to all humans


  • Anthropocentric — AI should be in the service of humanity
  • Biocentric — AI is part of nature and will be our successor
  • Theocentric — AI is the creation of a new god